Depending on what you read and who's perspective you choose to believe, recent statistics on population statistics around the State of Florida might suggest different patterns for future growth. But things are always changing, right? I guess the bigger question is - Are these changes the sign of bigger things to come?

Whether the changes are a sign of a long term shift or merely a blip on the radar is anyone's guess. What does seem to be clear is that the juxtaposition of two strong hurricane seasons in '04 and '05 combined with one of a biggest runups in the history of our state's real estate market has had at least some effect on the flow of people to, from, and within, our wonderful state.

Larry Thornberry of the Florida Real Estate Journal (March 16 issue) mentions that it now costs more to live and work in Tampa than it does in Atlanta. He goes on to quote an economist (Mark Vitner of Wachovia Corp.) who states that whereas "Tampa's cost of housing used to be 20% below the national average, it is now 5% above"

In Palm Beach County, new census figures show that growth rates slowed from a blistering 12% between 2000 and 2005, to a mere 0.7% in '06.

Quoting Paul Owers of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, "for the first time in 30 years, United Van Lines Inc. says it moved more people out of Florida than in, and analysts see that as a sign that consumers are looking elsewhere for a cheaper slice of life." Admittedly not a scientific study, it is an interesting anecdotal piece.

I recall all of the media attention after our four successive hurricanes in '04 that suggested the threat of hurricanes would spook retirees and others out of living in Florida. I didn't buy it then, and I don't now. But the hurricanes did have an effect that was largely unanticipated, and that was what they did to the cost of insurance, which in turn now would appear to be motivating some folks to look for more affordable housing elsewhere. So while hurricanes didn't really scare folks out of Florida, it may have priced some folks out of Florida.

The other culprit is the runup in our real estate values that in turn creates a seemingly everlasting effect on our property taxes. We can all blame the investors if we want for the speculative buying and selling that contributed to the increase in Florida's real estate prices, or we could blame local politicians for our property taxes (but if it were their fault its ultimately our fault for letting them remain in office), but I think much of it has to do with a market finally catching up with a relatively undervalued place to live. That's the beauty of a free open market - it ultimately, if not predictably, responds.

So yes, the patterns of growth in some areas of the State are changing in response to the increase in our cost of living. Much of South Florida has become too expensive for some of the fixed income folks who used to relocate there from out of state. We speak with a lot of people who are relocating to the Orlando / Central Florida area from South Florida. But while taxes and insurance are often cited, I would say that most are moving up here because they are seeking a more relaxed lifestyle, less traffic, and less people. They are looking for a change, but they are still very much in love with the weather, still very satisfied with amenities, services, and job opportunities, and still very happy to call Florida their home.

So try not to worry about this flat real estate market for now. Go hang out at the beach, take a kid camping at a state park, or go hook into a big redfish. At the end of the day, we're fortunate enough to experience a lifestyle that is absolutely phenomenal, even if it costs more today than it did two years ago.

A recent University of Florida study points to a population growth in Florida of 17 million people in the next 50 years. If anything, we should probably enjoy this lull while we can.